Pakistan News

Interbank Rupee Declines By Almost Rs19 versus The Dollar Due To IMF Delays

Interbank Rupee Declines By Almost Rs19 versus The Dollar Due To IMF Delays

March 3, 2023 / By Zunair Tahir / Pakistan News


On the interbank market on Thursday, the Pakistani rupee plunged drastically by Rs18.74 versus the dollar, reaching a record high of Rs284.85 in morning trade, according to information provided by the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (Ecap).

Experts blamed the government’s standoff with the International Monetary Fund for the record loss, which is 7.04 percent (IMF).

According to SBP statistics, the PKR closed Wednesday at Rs266.11 per USD.

“Uncertainty resulting from IMF financing delay”
According to Mohammed Sohail, chief executive of Topline Securities, who spoke to Dawn.com, the recent decline was mostly brought on by a lack of confidence in the currency market due to the IMF’s delayed financing.

The “crackdowns on currency merely reinforced the grey market”
According to Zafar Paracha, secretary general of the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECAP), Pakistan was urged by the IMF to exchange dollars at the going rate for commerce with Afghanistan.

In other words, they had stated that rather than the interbank rate or the open market, our true rate should be the grey market rate. They are correct since the only location where trading in dollars now occurs is on the black market, he continued.

He claimed that because of limitations put in place by the government on foreign exchange, trading moved to the black market.

The numerous limitations they have placed on foreign exchange businesses regarding the buying and selling of the dollar, he claimed, prevent the currency from rising or falling.

He said that despite government crackdowns [on the grey market], this is still the case. Asserting that carrying out crackdowns would not assist, Paracha urged for a revision of the policies.

“Unintentionally, our policies have substantially aided the grey market. The IMF is aware of this as well, and has advised us to get our exchange rate between the rupee and the dollar to that level,” he continued.

The currency has been plunging in recent days amid delays in an agreement between Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund, which they have been discussing since early last month.

One of the things the IMF wants Pakistan to do is switch to a market-based currency exchange rate system. If the IMF’s board approves this measure, a financing tranche of over $1 billion that has been held up since late last year over a policy framework will be released.

The lender’s requirements are designed to make sure Pakistan reduces its fiscal deficit before presenting its annual budget in June.

But, the budgetary changes required by any agreement are expected to increase the already record-high inflation rate, which reached 31.5 percent in February.

The IMF has also asked Pakistan to increase policy rates and fulfil bilateral and multilateral external funding obligations.

China, Pakistan’s longtime friend, is the only nation to have refinanced $700 million to Islamabad.

At an off-cycle meeting on Thursday, the Pakistani central bank is generally anticipated to increase its benchmark policy rate by 200 basis points, according to a Reuters poll.


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Pakistan News

Rupee Strengthens More Against The Dollar Following Ishaq Dar’s Warning

Rupee Strengthens More Against The Dollar Following Ishaq Dar’s Warning

September 29, 2022 / By Zunair Tahir / Pakistan News


Following a change in leadership at the Ministry of Finance and a warning from Ishaq Dar to the speculators using the local currency, the rupee appreciated versus the dollar on Thursday for the fifth straight trading day.

The dollar’s value in the interbank market dropped during intraday trade from the previous session’s finish of 232.12 to 231 per rupee.

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The PML-N supremo Nawaz Sharif’s close aide Ishaq Dar’s reappointment as the nation’s finance minister has contributed to bettering sentiment, while the decline in global commodity prices fueled the rupee’s advance.

Dr. Khaqan Hassan Najeeb, an economist and former consultant to the federal ministry of finance, stated in an interview with Geo.tv that the first factor is a shift in market attitude brought on by a change in leadership at the finance ministry.

The previous advisor claimed that “the new team is viewed to be more sensitive of rupee movement and so leaning toward more orderly progress.”

Second, he pointed out that several fundamentals had improved, particularly the drop in oil and other important commodity prices, which may assist to lower the volume of imports.

Fortunately, the government’s administrative actions and the dropping global commodity prices will likely keep the current account deficit under control.

The rate of inflation has also likely reached its peak and is anticipated to decline during the ensuing months.

Dr. Najeeb added that the World Bank and the Asian Move Bank’s confirmation to give flood assistance is a market-supporting development.

The analyst went on to say that although it seems improbable, the potential for reconsideration and relaxation of some criteria by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) owing to the impact of the floods is boosting the rupee’s value.

The new finance czar asserts that the value of the local unit is undervalued and that he would try to control inflation by decreasing interest rates. He has firmly supported intervention in currency markets during his three prior tenures in the position.

Dar has also forwarded a warning to investors not to manipulate the currency markets.


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Pakistan News

The US Dollar Set A New Record

The US Dollar Set A New Record

June 20, 2022 / By Zunair Tahir / Pakistan News


Delays in the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the depreciation of the exchange rate have continued to increase the pressure on the rupee and the value of the dollar in the interbank market has exceeded Rs 210 while the dollar is trading between Rs 215 and 220 in the open market.


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The rupee continues to depreciate in the country and even today the value of the dollar has been recorded in the interbank market.

Market sources attribute the rising value of the dollar to the fact that Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have not yet restored the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). There are reservations that the authorities have allocated for the next financial year.

According to IMF estimates, even revenue measures in the budget are insufficient to meet the target of just over Rs. 7 trillion. The first draft of the Monetary Policy Memorandum was not received as some issues remained unresolved.

“We are working very closely with the IMF and will come to a conclusion soon,” he said. Is the target.


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Business News

Meteoric Dollar Smashes All Records & Reaches Rs200 In The Interbank Market

Meteoric Dollar Smashes All Records & Reaches Rs200 In The Interbank Market

May 19, 2022 / By Zunair Tahir / Business News

US dollar hit Rs200 in interbank trade on Thursday morning, up Rs1 from the previous day’s closing of Rs199, according to statistics from the Forex Association of Pakistan (FAP).

Around 11 a.m., the US dollar hit an all-time high of Rs200, according to the FAP.

The greenback had made a huge gain of more than Rs2 from Tuesday’s close and closed at Rs199 at the end of the session, the latest in a succession of new highs for the US currency since last Tuesday.

While the FAP reported the previous day’s closing rate as Rs199, the State Bank of Pakistan reported the rate as Rs198.39, which is still close to the Rs200 mark that the international currency is expected to reach earlier in the day due to the country’s rising import bill, growing current account deficit, and depleting foreign exchange reserves.

In the open market yesterday, the dollar had already touched Rs200.

‘The Darkest Day’

Some analysts are upset with the achievement. FAP Secretary General Zafar Paracha told Dawn.com that today was the “blackest day” in Pakistan’s history due to the current currency rate.

In a statement to Dawn.com, FAP chairperson Malik Bostan requested the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) to issue statutory regulatory instructions for the execution of import restrictions.
Meanwhile, Asad Rizvi, a former Chase Manhattan treasury chief, told Mettis Global, a web-based financial data and analytics portal, that “pension costs, circular debt [of] Rs2.5 trillion, public entities [worth] Rs1.2 trillion, and fiscal deficit of nearly 8% are not sustainable and adding pressure” on the rupee.

Meanwhile, the “independent SBP” was “not bothered by the PKR collapse, perhaps waiting for [an] IMF decision,” according to the Mettis Global report.

Rising oil prices have already increased the country’s oil import expenses in recent weeks, and overall imports are also at an all-time high. Imports soared by 72 percent in April, leaving the government with no room to repair its external balance.

Furthermore, the central bank’s foreign exchange reserves have dropped to $10.3 billion, the lowest level since June 2020.

Currency traders believe the unexpectedly large import bill and little foreign investment were not supportive of the currency rate, while the government already faced a $13 billion current account deficit.

The news comes after Pakistani officials resumed talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) yesterday, in which Finance Minister Miftah Ismail sought to dispel doubts on two fronts: that the new coalition government would stay in power and take tough decisions, as well as that the original fund program’s reforms would be implemented and structural benchmarks would be met.

According to informed sources, the negotiations began on a positive note, with both parties agreeing on important concepts such as separating the state’s economic decision-making from politics.

According to these sources, the government would revise gasoline and energy prices within days and implement a complete ban, rather than increase tariffs, on a total of approximately 30 luxury products, including cars and cellphones, as well as some smaller things, to limit imports and therefore external accounts. These announcements will be made soon in order to forward discussions toward a satisfactory conclusion of the revised program.


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